Archive for the ‘Economics’ Category

Healthcare and faith: Can we afford to be our brothers keeper?

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

From Examiner.com

Unless you have the good fortune to be on another planet you have no doubt heard nothing but news of the health care debate for the past several weeks. One side says that the    Obama plan will bankrupt this country and send us all to the poor house, the other side says we must insure the millions of people who have no health care coverage and we can do this by increasing the tax burden on the wealthiest of our citizens and as of this date,  Tim (Turbo Tax ) Geithner,  the Treasury Secretary , has come out and said that we may have raise taxes to pay for this behemoth of a program. So much for the “95 percent of you will get a tax cut” pledge.

This should come as no surprise to anyone who has a rudimentary grasp of mathematics. This plan by the government’s own estimates will cost TRILLIONS of dollars. Had you ever heard of a “trillion” previous to the last four or five years? What comes after that, a gazillion?  Any time you hear someone from the government start throwing out numbers, run them on your own.  Two things will usually be obvious. First, the numbers are usually wrong. Second, if you analyze any government program that has been in place for a  few years, look at what the initial estimated cost was going to be, and look at the actual cost. Most of the time it is grossly underestimated.  Then we have politicians who stand up and say to us that we must spend or go bankrupt. Just how does that work?  Not well for the average citizen who doesn’t have a few trillion laying around in a savings account.

In an article done for the Memphis Medical News, Holli W. Haynie states that according to 2005 data approximately 10% of the population of Shelby county is uninsured. This equates to about 90,000 people without health care coverage. These people often wind up going to emergency rooms to be treated for what is in essence a chronic condition. This ties up emergency centers and hinders them from treating real life threatening events

Putting aside the debate from a political perspective, how are people of faith expected to deal with this issue? Most faith traditions have admonitions about caring for the sick and elderly.  Proverbs 29:7 (New International Version)7 The righteous care about justice for the poor, but the wicked have no such concern.  Leviticus 23:22 (New International Version)
22 ” ‘When you reap the harvest of your land, do not reap to the very edges of your field or gather the gleanings of your harvest. Leave them for the poor and the alien. I am the LORD your God.’ ” The Holy Quran says:  # 2:184 (Asad) [fasting] during a certain number of days. [155] But whoever of you is ill, or on a journey, [shall fast instead for the same] number of other days; and [in such cases] it is incumbent upon those who can afford it to make sacrifice by feeding a needy person. The Book of Mormon: Alma 34
1. [28] And now behold, my beloved brethren, I say unto you, do not suppose that this is all; for after ye have done all these things, if ye turn away the needy, and the naked, and visit not the sick and afflicted, and impart of your substance, if ye have, to those who stand in need — I say unto you, if ye do not any of these things, behold, your prayer is vain, and availeth you nothing, and ye are as hypocrites who do deny the faith.

As can be seen we as people of faith are expected to care for those who cannot care for themselves.  Most of us don’t have a problem with this and would gladly help those who are genuinely in need, but how many of the millions that the government claims are uninsured are actually in  that category?  Once you extrapolate those who are uninsured for other reasons such as young people who feel like they are not in need of insurance right now, wealthy people who can afford to pay their medical bills themselves, people who have savings accounts set up for medical emergencies, and so forth, just how many people are not covered because they cannot afford to pay for it?

Cont.

Overlooking the Mormon Temple, a New Center

Wednesday, May 13th, 2009

From The New York Times:

SALT LAKE CITY — While the economic crisis has silenced hundreds of real estate projects around the country, 1,100 construction workers are toiling on a 20-acre development here that is springing up across the street from the Mormon Temple in the center of downtown.

A private development of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, City Creek Center will be the largest mixed-use project in Salt Lake City. When completed in 2012, it will encompass 900,000 square feet of retailing, including an outdoor pedestrian shopping mall capped by 115 apartments; 1.6 million square feet of office space in eight buildings; a grocery store; and five residential towers with about 600 condominiums.

The development, which is within sight of the Mormon Tabernacle, will also feature six acres of public spaces and a retractable glass roof over the retail component. A man-made creek will run through the property.

The Mormon Church, which has its headquarters in the city, is investing “hundreds of millions of dollars” in the project, said Mark Gibbons, president of City Creek Reserve Inc., a real estate arm of the church, while declining to be more specific. The project will reshape downtown, Mr. Gibbons said. “We believe there won’t be anything anywhere that compares with it,” he said.

City Creek is not immune to the recession, Mr. Gibbons conceded. But he said the church has always had a “debt averse” philosophy that is proving especially helpful in the current climate.

“For which of you intending to build a tower does not first count the cost to see if he have money to complete, so he doesn’t look like a fool,” said Mr. Gibbons, paraphrasing Luke 14:28-29. “We set aside reserves to build this project, we counted the cost before we started, and we have the resources to complete.”

Bounded by the Great Salt Lake and the Wasatch and Oquirrh mountain ranges, Salt Lake City is home to 200,000 people, about 40 percent of them Mormons. It is a center for outdoor recreation, with several ski areas within 30 minutes of the city; a financial services hub, and a film festival mecca.

But the Mormon Church also wields considerable clout as the city’s largest employer and landowner. “We don’t have a Microsoft or Coca-Cola,” said Jason Mathis, executive director of the Downtown Alliance. “In many ways, the L.D.S. church fills that role.”

Now the church is a bringing a high-density, mixed-use project to Salt Lake City, with its own imprint: outsized, environmentally friendly and with a history of controversy. Two other companies have taken relatively small stakes in parts of the project.

Located at the intersection of the city’s primary commercial and ecclesiastical corridors, Main and South Temple Streets, the City Creek site, which is owned by the church, previously housed two poorly performing malls.

When Nordstrom, which anchored one of the shopping centers, threatened to leave seven years ago, Mormon leaders decided it was time for a makeover. The mayor at the time, Rocky Anderson, called enclosed malls “a failed paradigm,” and the church eventually agreed to a design that is much more open than the former malls.

To integrate the project with the surrounding neighborhood, City Creek planners put all parking underground and carved new streets into Salt Lake City’s monolithic 10-acre blocks — a legacy of the church’s founder, Joseph Smith, who developed a plan for the “City of Zion” in 1833.

The project features sweeping promenades and urban plazas “in line with the great plazas in Italy,” said Joe Collins, a project architect with Zimmer Gunsul Frasca. Fountains that include fire and bells — designed by the company responsible for water features at the Bellagio hotel in Las Vegas — will grace one of the plazas. “It’s going to be marvelous,” Mr. Gibbons said.

City Creek’s two-story 100-store retail center consists of several structures and will be developed by Taubman Centers, a developer based in Michigan, which is investing $75 million.

Its chief operating officer, William S. Taubman, said he had re-signed Macy’s and Nordstrom as anchor tenants, but declined to comment on the number of additional commitments he had secured. The center, which will open in 2012, will provide more upscale shopping than currently found in Salt Lake City, he said.

Nationwide, about 12 other major shopping centers were scheduled to open in the next year, Mr. Taubman said, but almost all of them have been delayed. City Creek is one of the few that has not been hampered by the economic downturn, he said.

How Does this Recession Compare?

Friday, February 20th, 2009

Chart courtesy of Calculated Risk:

Housing Experts Skeptical Over Foreclosure Fix Plan

Wednesday, February 18th, 2009

From FoxBusiness.com:

Cartoon link

President Barack Obama is expected today to announce a plan with a price tag of anywhere from $50 billion to $100 billion aimed at rescuing homeowners at risk of foreclosure.

The intention seems honorable: help homeowners stay in their homes, while at the same time shoring up the assets of the banks that hold many of these loans in those now notoriously complex securities constructed around home mortgages.

By some dire estimates, 10 million American homeowners could face foreclosure in the next few years if the economy continues to slide. The pattern has already been established. More than 2.3 million mortgage holders entered the foreclosure process in 2008, a shocking 81% increase from the year before.

But, as is often the case with these economic relief programs, the solutions often raise as many questions as the problems themselves.

Indeed, housing experts are skeptical that any government program can slow the record pace of foreclosures.

“I would be shocked beyond words if, after they roll this out, I feel that the nation’s housing problems have been fixed,” said Debi Averett, who runs the Web site Housingdoom.com.

According to information leaked by government officials ahead of Obama’s announcement, key elements of the plan include lowering mortgage holders’ monthly payments so that they comprise about 31% of the homeowner’s monthly income.

Some homeowners at risk of default are reportedly paying out as much as 40% of their monthly income on their mortgages.

A family with an annual income of about $50,000 will usually pay about $19,000 toward their mortgage, according to government figures. Under Obama’s housing proposal, that figure would be reduced to $15,500, a savings of $3,500.

Banks would also be required to reduce the principles of some mortgages. The idea being that the loss absorbed by the write-down would be far less than if the mortgage was defaulted on altogether.

Obama also wants bankruptcy judges to be allowed to renegotiate mortgages, a concept housing and consumer lending advocates have preached since the dawn of the economic meltdown that followed the bursting of the U.S. housing bubble three years ago.

An early red flag for proponents of renegotiating mortgages is that many banks – and the government, as well – have already put in place such programs, and the results aren’t pretty.

Consider these figures from John C. Dugan, U.S. Controller of the Currency, for loans modified in the first quarter of 2008: after three months, nearly 36% of the borrowers had re-defaulted by being more than 30 days past due. After six months, the rate was nearly 53%, and after eight months, 58%.

The data is similar for mortgages modified in the second quarter of 2008. According to Dugan, the re-default rate after three months was 39%, and after six months, 51%.

Averett said the government is clearly trying to prop up the housing market by slowing the rate of foreclosures, an honorable gesture if it means keeping a roof over childrens’ heads.

But Averett maintains that the housing market will not stabilize until prices reach their own bottom, and buyers begin stepping in to buy up the huge surplus of homes now for sale.

“Ultimately it’s supply and demand. They can readjust all the loans they want, but there’s still too much supply. What they need to do is buy up all those houses and bulldoze them to get rid of the supply,” she joked.

And beyond simple economic laws, there is the moral question raised by using taxpayer dollars to help homeowners, many of whom simply bought houses they couldn’t afford.

“Why should the Amercian taxpayer pick up the bill for a situation like that?” Averett asked.

Gimmicky loans with low initial interest rates allowed untold numbers of borrowers to buy a $300,000 home when they should have bought a $200,000. After the teaser rate expired and the interest rate adjusted higher, many of those borrowers have found themselves unable to cover the mortgage.

It’s sad, but should taxpayers who stayed within their means be asked to cover the losses for borrowers who didn’t.

That’s just one question raised by the “solution” to the foreclosure problem. There are many others.

A recession of biblical proportions

Monday, February 2nd, 2009

From Fortune Magazine:

Ever since Joseph decoded Pharaoh’s dream about fat cows and thin ones and delivered his policy response - save in the fat years to survive in the lean times - consumers have followed that model.

In booms we put away some of the abundance because we know we’ll need it in busts to come. Then, when the bad times hit, we spend some of what we’ve saved. But no more: Our recent bizarre behavior helps explain how we got into this economic mess. It may also hold clues to how we climb out of what will soon be the longest recession in 75 years.

For the first time since Genesis, consumers are doing everything backward. During the expansion from 2002 through 2007, our savings rate fell rather than rose. In mid-2005 it even went negative, and it mostly stayed below 1% until late last year. Then, as the recession really took hold, we again did the opposite: We increased our saving. As the economy shrinks, our savings rate has climbed to almost 3%.

That is the reverse of how consumers behaved in the Great Depression, for example. The personal savings rate declined after the 1929 market crash, and in the Depression’s two worst years, 1932 and 1933, the rate went negative - we spent more than we earned. As the economy improved, our savings rate (the percentage of disposable income we save) was back up to 6% by 1937, but when the economy turned down in 1938, the rate dropped to 2%; the next year it rose. It was all a textbook illustration of logical consumer behavior.

This pattern that began with Pharaoh’s dream moderates business cycles. It stabilizes the economy by damping down spending during expansions and fueling it during recessions. Today, however, we’re in a bind. We really do need to save more, but to get out of the recession we also need to spend more, and we can’t do both at the same time, especially with jobs disappearing in huge numbers. It’s a double whammy: Not only do we lack savings to dig into and spend during this downturn, but we’re also spending a smaller proportion of our incomes (which are themselves stagnating, so maybe it’s a triple whammy). Put it all together, and it’s clear why this recession is dragging on.

The central mystery: Why did we go into hock in the fat years? One argument is that we were behaving rationally. As our homes increased in value, they were doing our saving for us, so we didn’t have to save out of current income. The trouble is that after home values turned down in mid-2006 and started making us poorer rather than richer, our savings rate kept right on falling.

Nor was our borrowing binge focused only on mortgages; we were going heavily into most other types of debt as well. In fact, we were spending record proportions of our incomes just to service our personal debt - even with interest rates near historical lows.

Maybe it was just a mania, focused not on tulip bulbs but on the simple joy of buying, reinforced by a belief that bad times were no longer inevitable. We hadn’t seen a severe recession in 25 years; maybe we had advanced past such things. Or maybe some critical mass of people had never known real privation; if you’ve never missed a meal in your life, why would you worry about thin cows?

We can take several steps to move forward. In the near term we need spending, and that probably requires home-price stability - either government action to fend off foreclosures and spur buying, or the market bottoming on its own. Longer term we need saving, which could be encouraged in many ways. Washington could raise or remove the ceiling on tax-free IRA contributions. Companies can make 401(k) plans the default option for new employees rather than something they have to choose. Harvard Business School professor Peter Tufano advocates innovative ideas such as prize-linked savings vehicles, in which giant interest payments are awarded lottery-style; such programs have boosted savings for decades in other countries.

Whatever happens, don’t expect miracles. Spending and saving behavior evolves slowly, and our current mess is in some ways the culmination of a long journey. We may not suddenly start behaving with biblical wisdom. But at least let’s try not to forget how bad things can be when we get spending and saving backward.  (cont.)

Link to article

Glenn Beck airing out his frustrations

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

From The Houston Chronicle:

Glenn Beck, the former Houston radio disc jockey whose weekday TV and radio talk shows are moving to new outlets over the next two weeks, hasn’t lived in the state for almost two decades. He cringes anytime anyone brings up his stint on Houston drive-time radio in the late 1980s.

But Texas, and what he views as the traditional attitude of Texans, plays a significant role in the vision of apocalyptic gloom that he carries into his new show at 4 p.m. weekdays on Fox News.

Beck, who was a morning-drive host on KRBE (104.1 FM) from 1988 through 1990 before moving into national syndication, sees disaster and mayhem in the making because of what he views as the government’s incursions into personal freedoms and its recent moves to bolster the flagging economy.

“For the last four years, and for the last two years really seriously, I have seen trouble on the horizon,” he said. “And a lot of it stems from a trip I took to Texas two years ago that convinced me that if we don’t wake up, we’re going to lose our freedoms in this republic and everything we thought we were.”

Beck said he was in Dallas for less than a day during the eye-opening trip in question before he began picking up warning signs from practically everyone he met about the road ahead.

“People think Texans are arrogant and want to kick everyone’s butt, but Texans love America,” he said. “They don’t have a problem with other states, but they see Texas as a republic that happens to be better. It’s not ‘you suck,’ it’s ‘man, we’re great.’

“Texans are keepers of the republic flame on two fronts, Texas and the United States, and they instinctively know that our republic is in danger, that our government has real corruption, that they are stomping on our rights and destroying our monetary system in the name of saving it. It’s a dangerous game.”

While Beck espouses an affinity for what he views as the Texas mindset, he has unhappy memories of his stint in Houston at KRBE when it was known as Power 104. He worked morning drive at the station , doing the voiceover for a character he called “Clydie Clyde.”

“It was the worst time in my broadcasting career, and I wish people would stop bringing it up,” he said. “It’s the most embarrassing thing I ever did on radio. If I could make everybody forget about my time in Houston, it would be good.

“I was probably at my most arrogant. I thought I could do no wrong. It was tough to beat my arrogance and lack of intelligence and talent at the time. ‘I’m invincible. Look at me.’ It was garbage.”

Beck said he rebuilt his life through Alcoholics Anonymous, a remarriage and membership in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. His career blossomed, too, when he launched a talk show in Tampa, Fla., in 2000. The show moved to national syndication in 2002, and he began his stint on Headline News in 2006.

Beck equates alcoholism with egomania and describes himself, as well as a recovering alcoholic, as a “recovering egomaniac,” which can be a tricky affliction for someone in such a personality-driven business as talk radio. Perhaps as an antidote for an out-of-control ego, he tends toward a gloomy take on the world and, he says, looks for people to tell him he’s wrong.

“I see my job as a war gamer,” he said. “Let’s play these stories out. Where does this end? How does this end? You have to have a decent respect for your ability to reason, but there’s a difference between saying I’m right and doing what I’m doing.

“It may not come off this way, but you’ve never met a host who wants to be wrong more than me. I pray, literally pray, each day, ‘Dear Lord, show me where I’m wrong.’”  (cont.)

Link to article

LDS Church initiates hiring freeze

Wednesday, January 7th, 2009

From Standard-Journal (ID):

SALT LAKE CITY — The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints initiated a church-wide hiring freeze on Dec. 19, according Brigham Young University-Idaho University Relations.

The hiring freeze is throughout the LDS Church, affecting at least LDS Employment Services, LDS Family Services and church-owned universities such as BYU-I.

According to spokeswomen Kim Farah, Deseret Industries has not been affected by the hiring freeze because it is a humanitarian operation.

The church has released this statement:

“In response to the recent economic downturn, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints is currently not hiring new employees. This temporary action, which has been taken before during previous periods of economic uncertainty, is consistent with the principles of thrift and fiscal responsibility that the church has long encouraged its members to practice.”

While local LDS entities declined to comment, the university released this statement:

“In these challenging economic times, BYU-Idaho is very grateful to be divinely led and supported by modern prophets who are simultaneously committed to preserving the financial integrity of the church and the mission of the university. We will be working with our board to implement this directive.”
Link to article

Shops without cash registers: Mormon theology softens hard times with safety net.

Saturday, January 3rd, 2009

From Columbiatribune.com (MO):

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) - Bishop’s Storehouse looks like any other grocery store at first glance: The shelves are neatly lined with canned goods, and the smell of fresh bread wafts through the aisles.

But there are no cash registers. The fruits and vegetables, just-made cheeses and milk are free - a safety net for those in need provided by the 13 million members of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints.

“We like to call it the best food money can’t buy,” said Jim Goodrich, who oversees the storehouse and other facilities on the church’s 13-plus-acre Welfare Square.

Mormons might be among the country’s best-prepared to weather the current economic hard times.

Since the Great Depression, Mormon church leaders have preached a doctrine of self-reliance and selflessness, calling on members to plan for their own future while tending to the needs of others.

“It’s a critical component of our theology,” said Bishop David Burton, a senior church administrator who oversees the faith’s worldwide welfare and humanitarian services programs.

Members are encouraged to squirrel away a few months’ worth of living expenses and stock a one-year supply of emergency food.

Mormon church handouts, classes and a Web site describe how to prepare, store and cook with emergency food supplies so nothing will go to waste.

Each month, members skip two meals and give the money they would have spent on food to church welfare programs, paying for the commodities, clothing, job training and other services made available to the needy.

The church also works in partnership with other faith traditions and local social service agencies to share surplus commodities and support services.

Welfare Square is the heart of the program.

Founded in the 1930s, the square is home to a cannery, milk and cheese processing facility; a 16-million pound grain elevator; and a bakery, storehouse, thrift store and employment center, all of which are run mostly by volunteers serving church missions.

Over the years, the safety net has extended worldwide to include farms, orchards, dairies and cattle ranches that provide the raw material for the commodities harvested, processed and packaged at church facilities.

Each product carries the “Deseret” label - a Book of Mormon word that is a synonym for honeybee and a metaphor for the industriousness of church members.

“What we see today is the product of 60 years of inspired leadership and a lot of hard work,” Burton said. “I can’t tell you the cumulative investment, but it’s minor in terms of the cumulative effort on the part of thousands and thousands.”

Church members seek out their local congregation leader, called a bishop, to access the system.

Bishops - there are 27,000 worldwide - also have a pool of cash to pay for housing, medical needs or keep the utilities on, although the church prefers to provide commodities first, Burton said.

Assistance comes with the expectation of reciprocal service, whether it’s a few hours of volunteer work stocking shelves or some other form of service.

Jennifer Williams was hesitant to accept help. Fresh out of college and in the middle of a difficult divorce, she was struggling to find a career that matched her skills - fluency in Russian and a political science education.

“One of the things that makes it so hard is that you think it’s just for people who don’t have a job, not for someone like me, working, middle-class and educated,” said Williams, 29, now of Washington, D.C. “But, you know, needing help is OK.”

Without money to buy a gallon of milk, she temporarily stocked her pantry with church commodities and used the training she got in an executive job search program to land a position with a defense contractor.

It’s unclear how many individuals and families need church assistance each year.

Church statistics from 2007 show some 210,000 people used employment centers and training to find jobs.

But church officials declined to provide a demographic snapshot of the average welfare recipient, the amount of time most recipients use the programs and an average value for the commodities provided.

Without that information, it is difficult to assess the effect the church programs have on the community, said Glenn Bailey, director of Crossroads Urban Center, an advocacy and direct services agency for the poor in Salt Lake City that annually receives a share of church commodities for its own emergency food bank.

“I think they play a critical role, it’s just that there’s no way to tell the size of the gap they fill,” Bailey said. “Obviously they are doing a lot of work and helping a lot of people who would go without or seek assistance elsewhere.”

Link to article

Dresses for the unconventional bride

Sunday, December 14th, 2008

From The News-Leader (Springfield, MO):

Des Peres — As a Mormon planning a temple wedding, Jenna Gaal knew what she needed in a wedding gown: pure white, with sleeves and a conservative neckline and hem.

She just couldn’t find it.

“I tried on things that looked like nightgowns, floor-length with beads,” said the 23-year-old from Kansas City, who wanted something elegant as well as modest.

Finally, she found her dress about a four-hour drive from home at Chatfields Boutique in the St. Louis suburb of Des Peres. Chatfields, which bills itself as “an unexpected wedding store” features modest, plus-size, eco-friendly, maternity and other specialty gowns.

Its owner, Debbie Welcher, notes that not all brides are seeking a size 6 strapless couture gown. While those with unconventional — or very traditional — needs may have to do a little more homework, there are places where they, too, can find the dress of their dreams.

Gaal was beaming, and her mother looked happy too, as she stood in front of a mirror at Chatfields while her satin gown — with covered shoulders, a dropped waist and box pleats — was being fitted. She found the store because it is near her wedding temple.

“Oh my goodness! I was almost in tears because I had 10 to 20 dresses to try on, instead of two or three to try and work with,” she said. “I think it’s a great thing because every bride wants to look pretty on her wedding day.”

Welcher was motivated to create a boutique of hard-to-find bridal dresses when she heard a radio call-in discussion about how difficult it could be for pregnant brides to find flattering dresses and sympathetic salespeople.

Her store now serves a variety of niche bridal markets. There is a pregnant mannequin in the same store window as another mannequin wearing a temple-ready gown with high neck and long sleeves.

The maternity dress is a champagne taffeta with a corset back that can be laced to adjust for a changing figure. It also includes a panel of fabric that expands to accommodate an expanding belly.

“It’s not just an empire with fabric hanging down,” Welcher said, referring to the high-waistline style that might be used to dress a pregnant woman. “I love this dress because it’s so Audrey Hepburn.”

These days, brides want gowns that fit their own personal circumstances, say those in the industry.

“The whole concept of a traditional bride is being turned on its head a little bit,” said spokeswoman Cindi Freeburn of David’s Bridal, which has about 300 stores nationwide. “Brides really want to make their wedding their own.”

Freeburn noted that about 15 percent of American weddings are now “destination” weddings, for which brides might want gowns that can be worn outside.

Gown preferences also can vary by region, she said, and David’s adjusts its mix of dresses to meet demand — providing more covered-up gowns, for instance, in areas where there are larger concentrations of conservative, religious families.

The chain doesn’t specifically design maternity dresses, Freeburn said, but has in-store experts trained to make those alterations.  (cont.)

Link to article

How Bad is it Going to Get? A conversation about economics with 'Black Swan' Author Nassim Taleb

Monday, December 8th, 2008

From CharlieRose.com: