From The Washington Post:
The news that Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman will be the Obama administration’s envoy to China has myriad implications in terms of the re-building of the Republican Party and the positioning of potential candidates for 2012.
Huntsman had already begun to put in place the pieces of a national campaign — bringing on John Weaver, a former senior adviser to Sen. John McCain (Ariz.), and recruiting operatives in places like New Hampshire and South Carolina.
What that tells us is that while it may be only 2009, the process of running for president is already well under way on the Republican side. And, that means that the moderate Utah governor’s departure from the race creates opportunities — both ideologically and geographically — that those with national aspirations will move to fill.
Below is our list of the winners and losers from the Huntsman announcement. Have thoughts of your own? The comments section awaits.
WINNERS
Mitt Romney: The 2012 presidential field probably wasn’t big enough for two Mormon candidates. Huntsman’s presence in the race would have split the Mormon donor base on which Romney capitalized so successfully in 2008 and would also have kept the religion issue front and center (Two Mormons! Running for president!), which would not have worked in Romney’s favor. Romney is already at the front of the 2012 pack but Huntsman’s decision strengthens his hand.
Charlie Crist: If you believe the idea that there is a moderate/centrist slot in the 2012 presidential field, then the Florida governor is now the leading voice of that wing of the party. (Worth noting: Rudy Giuliani’s bet that there was a moderate track to the nomination in 2008 proved entirely didn’t pay.) Crist is the favorite to replace Sen. Mel Martinez (R) in the Senate next fall and, if he wins, will be able to point to his recent electoral successes as a validation of his pragmatic conservative approach. Of course, Crist is solely focused on serving in the Senate and isn’t running in this race with an eye on 2012. Riiiiiight.
Jon Huntsman: Yes, he voluntarily took himself out of the running for 2012. But, Huntsman, who is only 49 years old, may well have positioned himself perfectly for 2016 — if Obama wins a second term in three years time. Huntsman will have deepened his resume — several years working with the world’s biggest emerging superpower can’t hurt — and this move will enable him to make the argument that his life’s work has demonstrated the sort of bipartisan cooperation that voters profess to love. Could Huntsman’s work with a Democratic administration raise questions among hard-line conservatives about his Republican bona fides? Maybe. But, after eight years of a Democratic president the base would almost certainly be more focused on winning back the White House than proving an ideological point.
Bob Bennett: The Utah Republican senator seemed to be on a crash course with state Attorney General Mark Shurtleff in 2010. (Shurtleff all but announced his primary candidacy via an accidental tweet last week.) Now, there is a decent chance that Shurtleff decides to make a bid for the governorship in a 2010 special election although to do so would mean he would have to battle through a crowded primary that is almost certain to include Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert, who would replace Huntsman when he steps down. Utah insiders still believe Shurtleff will run for the Senate but a semi-open governor’s race might be too enticing for him to pass up.
LOSERS
Moderates: There are a small number of influential moderates within the party and their ranks have thinned in recent weeks with former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge’s decision not to run for the Senate and Huntsman’s move to China. With the debate raging in the GOP over whether to re-shape the party’s image in a more centrist light or reaffirm core conservative principles, there aren’t many voices on the moderate side of the argument.
Former McCainiacs: A number of people with close ties to McCain’s two presidential bids — led by Weaver and South Carolina consultant Richard Quinn — had already signed on to help Huntsman in 2012. With their guy now off the presidential playing field indefinitely, they have to find a new rising star for 2012 or run the risk of being left out of the machinations over identity of the party’s next nominee.
Enviros: Huntsman was the most prominent voice among 2012 GOP contenders in support of curbing greenhouse gas emissions to lessen the dangers posed by global warming. With him out of the field, it’s not clear who — if anyone — will pick up that mantle on the Republican side. And, in Utah, Herbert is far less progressive on environmental issues than Huntsman — meaning the gains made by the environmental community in recent years in the state are in danger of being re-examined.